Looking Ahead
The NFL Playoffs may still be going on, but the Indianapolis Colts’ season has already ended, and so the offseason has arrived. Thanks to the masterclass from C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins that effectively ended our playoff hopes, most first draft mock drafts are predicting a CB for our first round pick. There are others who are hoping we trade up to have the opportunity to draft all-world tight end Brock Bowers or even Marvin Harrison Jr., but the reality is we will have to pick at our spot (#15) or trade back and accumulate more draft picks. There are rumors of A.J. Brown being traded (2nd highest odds of him landing in Indianapolis currently) here but I don’t see that happening right now. If Michael Pittman Jr. decides to not return to Indy next season, whether under a new contract or the franchise tag, the chance of A.J. Brown coming to Indianapolis increases.
On Spotrac, the Indianapolis Colts have the 5th most cap space at $66,350,395 for the offseason. Of course there are a few of our own guys that are unrestricted free agents, including Michael Pittman Jr., Grover Stewart, Kenny Moore, Julian Blackmon, Gardner Minshew, and Zach Moss. Personally, I hope we are able to re-sign all of them, but this won’t be possible unless we release a player or two currently under contract (sorry Mo Alie-Cox).
Gus Bradley is back for 2024. And that should strike fear into the hearts of Colts fans everywhere. Not all the blame can be placed on Gus Bradley, but I would argue a large part of our poor defense this season was due to Gus being hard-headed and leaving our secondary hung out to dry. Gus decided to rarely (if ever) call a blitz and relied on our defensive line to generate pressure. If you asked the average NFL fan to name two players on our defensive line, they probably won’t be able to. DeForest Buckner has been the only player who put consistent pressure on the QB, with Ebukam being average with the pass rush. Our recent draft picks Odeyinbgo and Adebawore have been underwhelming, with Kwity Paye straight up disappearing in some games. Why then would Gus not call for some slot corner blitzes or rush the linebackers? Especially when E.J. Speed and Zaire Franklin are terrible coverage linebackers.
What I want to see next season is Nick Cross play the sub-LB role (he has been excellent at defending the run this season so no concerns there) so we have more speed in the secondary. I want to see more blitzing LBs and less soft zone coverages and more man from Brents/Moore/Jones/Flowers and see what they can do when they don’t have to defend a WR for a longer duration. I want to see more Cover 1 or 2 with a Cover 0 thrown in once in a while. I want to see aggressive plays on the ball and not the soft “bend don’t break” defense that we saw a while back when we wasted a lot of the Peyton Manning years. This is what I want to see, but this probably won’t be what I get. So we’ll have to go another direction – sign and draft better players. If I am Chris Ballard, the below are what I would do with the current roster:
- Cut Mo Alie-Cox – With Mallory shaping up to be our top receiving TE (until Jelani Woods is back healthy) and Granson as a capable backup (not sure if Ogletree is returning), Mo’s salary is too much for the production he brings. He isn’t a capable pass blocker, only better than Will Fries and Freeland (who isn’t better than Freeland?), and another receiving TE for ~$6 million is a luxury we don’t need. I’d cut Mo and use the cap space to re-sign players.
- Re-sign Kenny Moore – Kenny is one of the top slot corners in the league, and if we are able to re-sign him(Spotrac has him at a Market Value of ~$9 million), that would be ideal. Otherwise, we’d have to look at CB in the draft as a top priority, and the top 5 here are Cooper DeJean, Nate Wiggins, Lassiter, Max Melton, and Terrion Arnold)
- Re-sign Grover Stewart – Big Grove has been a run stopper his entire career, and having him paired with Buckner would be nice. However, Spotrac’s MV on Grover is ~$11 million, and the Colts could go the younger route for DT2 in this year’s draft. I’m thinking Kris Jenkins, Johnny Newton (good speed rusher but mediore run defense), Byron Murphy II, or Brandon Dorlus later in the draft.
- Re-sign Michael Pittman Jr. – MPJ has been our only consistent receiver the past few years so we need to lock him up. He is going to explore other options in free agency but I hope we are able to re-sign him or place him on the franchise tag. Spotrac values him at around $22 million, so this would cover a chunk of the cap space, though it would be well worth it.
- Sign Josh Dobbs – This season has proven having a good backup QB is essential. Although Minshew has played well this season, he has been very inconsistent. Josh Dobbs (or Tyrod Taylor) might command a similar salary at around $5-6 million per year, and I would sign the Passtronaut for the upside he brings, with a playstyle more similar to Anthony Richardson. That Josh Dobbs to Josh Downs connection would be sick. I’d be open to drafting a QB if J.J. McCarthy or Michael Pratt are still available in the mid-rounds.
- Sign Townsend or Bojorquez – Can we get Deestroying? Nah I’m just playin. I’d like Tommy Townsend or Corey Bojorquez here at around $4-5 million as they are top 5 in the league, and Rigo has been an average punter this season (#16). However, if we’re able to re-sign Rigo for under $4 million, I’ll take it, as the cupboard for the other available free agent options out there is bare (Braden Mann and Jake Bailey, looking at you).
- Draft a linebacker – I wish we retained Okereke. Our LB coverage has not been good this season with Zaire Franklin and E.J. Speed. I want Queen or one of the Devins but some team will probably give them a big contract we can’t afford. Therefore, drafting a LB should be a top 3 priority in the draft. There aren’t many elite inside linebackers in this year’s draft, but my targets here are Junior Colson and Cedric Gray early or Marist Liufau and Edgerrin Cooper in the later rounds.
- Re-sign Zach Moss – In JT’s absense and as a spell HB, Zach has been great in his role. He may be offered a bigger contract from an RB-needy team, but I would like to retain him here at around $4.5 million).
- 2024 NFL Draft targets:
– Round 1 Pick 15: Cooper DeJean, Nate Wiggins, Lassiter, Max Melton, and Terrion Arnold
– Round 2 Pick 43: Byron Murphy II, Kris Jenkins, Junior Colson
– Round 3 Pick 74: JJ McCarthy, Michael Pratt, Cedric Gray
– Round 4 Pick 109: Marist Liufau, Edgerrin Cooper - Free agents to target – after the re-signs and then setting aside roughly $10 million for the Colts’ draft picks, there will be ~$12 million to play around in free agency. I’d like to bring in a RG such as Kevin Zeitler for ($7.5 million) and Jamal Agnew ($4 million) for kick/punt returner and WR depth.
Improving the defense is the clear focal point of this offseason, and for good reason. With promising young QBs in our division in Stroud, Lawrence, and Levis, stopping them is key. All that being said, our franchise is dependent on Anthony Richardson’s health. If he is healthy, the Colts can win every single game and mask the deficiencies of the Gus Bradley defense. Otherwise, we’ll need to hope our rookies and new additions step up on the defensive side. Our team is built to be dynamic while controlling the clock, play with a lead, and keep the defense fresh (or fresher than normal) as we play the bend-don’t-break defense hoping the opposing offenses messes up. There isn’t any more we can improve on the offensive side other than RG and depth, but there is plenty of weaknesses on defense. I hope to see some exciting additions on the defensive side of the ball this offseason and get excited for Colts football again.
NFL – Indianapolis Colts Week 4 Recap and Week 5 Predictions
There were many questions going into Week 4, and some were answered, but others were not. Some preliminary thoughts: our offense continued to struggle, with our defense once again keeping us in the game. We did not have a single 3-and-out before this game, and we were 3-and-out a lot of the drives. If you liked a defensive game and an offensive struggle, this was yours. I also saw a few Jonathan Taylor runs to the outside, which I had been clamoring about, so I was happy about that. However, we definitely did not run the ball as much as I wanted them to, but we still managed to escape with the win thanks to great defense and special teams play.
Result of my predictions:
- Colts win 24-17 – Colts win 19-11. I expected a close game and we got one.
- Jonathan Taylor – 70 yds, 2 TD – 17 rush, 68 yds. The Bears defense combined with our sub-par offense stalled the offense in the red zone, but I was almost exact on the yardage.
- Philip Rivers – 260 yds with 1 TD 2 INT – 190 yds with 1 TD. Rivers should easily have 2 INT had Khalil Mack had not dropped the easy tipped pass that hung in the air forever and if Roquan Smith did not have his left foot out of bounds. Rivers luckily escapes another week with no INTs.
- Zach Pascal – 50 yds, 1 TD – 3 rec, 58 yds. Pascal didn’t get a TD but was key in a game that was missing Pittman Jr. and Campbell. Mo-Alie Cox definitely looks like their top receiving option right now.
- Anthony Miller – 6 rec, 80 yds, TD – 3 rec, 16 yds. I keep trying to make Anthony Miller happen. It’s not happening.
I’d like to start out by discussing Julian Blackmon. WHAT. A. PLAYER. He has been stepping up each week, and this week he laid out top Bears receiver Allen Robinson on a key down and picked off Nick Foles for his first interception of his career. Going into the draft, I had focused mostly on Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr., but Julian Blackmon has been the biggest surprise here, filling in admirably for Malik Hooker. His awareness and ability to get to the ball is amazing. Our 6th rounder Jordan Glasgow set the tone of the game with a blocked punt early in the game and made a hit stick tackle on returner Cordarrelle Patterson as well.
DeForest Buckner continues to show us why he is the top DT only behind Aaron Donald. He was doubled almost the entire game but was still consistently able to swim and get to the QB. Of course, we knew his play and presence would definitely help the rest of the defensive line, as Justin Houston had a great game as well. The pressure from both Buckner and Houston has been great, but I’m hoping the other edge will show up. Here’s to Turay coming back strong and making our defensive line that much better.
The offense was a different story. We struggled on third downs and were predictable on many plays. I wonder why we don’t run the ball more often on early downs. Our offensive line has been good but not great, but we need to establish a rhythm. Frank Reich is calling too many pass plays and not mixing it up enough. Even though Rodrigo “Hot Rod” Blankenship has been great for us so far this season, we shouldn’t have to see him that much on 4th downs, but much more on extra points.
At the end of the day, we got the win, so I’m content, but what will happen when we face great QBs? So far we’ve faced Gardner Minshew, Kirk Cousins, Sam Darnold, and Nick Foles. Not very good QBs, but I’m glad we are capitalizing on it.
In week 5, we will face the Cleveland Browns, and I think it will be a tight game. Both teams are similar, with the strength on defense and the offense being inconsistent. The Browns defensive line has been playing very well in stopping the run, but their secondary has a few questions and I think Reich and Rivers can expose that this week if Reich’s play calling improves and Rivers is more accurate. It will be up to our new Cover 3/man defense once again to step up and keep us in the game (crazy how I’m saying this as a Colts fan) and our offense to not make mistakes. If the Browns’ defensive line puts enough pressure, Ward may take one to the house.
There are a lot of injuries this game, but I think the injuries to our players will hurt more, with Castonzo, Leonard, and Okereke adding to the list and not practicing yesterday. Let’s hope their status will elevate later in the week, but if they end up not playing, I think the Cleveland Browns will win this game. On their end, Nick Chubb may be limited, but they will still have Kareem Hunt, who’s a great RB.
Predictions:
- Browns win 20-17
- Jonathan Taylor – 65 yds, 1 TD
- Philip Rivers – 230 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Zach Pascal – 60 yds, 1 TD
- Baker Mayfield – 160 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
NFL – Indianapolis Colts Week 2 Recap and Week 3 Predictions
It has been a crazy two weeks of football to start the season. The first week of the 2020-2021 NFL season kicked off well, with few penalties and injuries. No fans in the stands, fake crowd noises may have helped. However, Week 2 arrived and the injuries kept piling up. Teams lost their bellcow, their defensive playmaker, or true depth players that play critical roles on their team. Tears and cries were heard from fantasy football players everywhere.
For the Indianapolis Colts, their philosophy in the offseason was already compromised. They were going to have a twin-headed monster at the RB position with Marlon Mack and Jonathan Taylor. Early on in the Week 1 game against Jacksonville, Marlon caught a pass, went down to the ground awkwardly, and was lost for the season. Hines filled in admirably, looking like Ekeler 2.0 for Phillip Rivers. However, the team came out lacking. Broken defensive zone coverages, miscommunication, questionable playcalling, and a slow start to the offensive line led to an upset and a win for the Jacksonville Jaguars. This was a game we should have won convincingly, but we did not, and we started off the year 0-1.
We had a date with the Minnesota Vikings in Week 2. They were coming off a shootout against the Green Bay Packers, so I was sure the offense will be putting up numbers. However, I was still skeptical as we had lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Even with Marlon Mack lost for the season, I truly believed the attack should start with our running game (still crazy to say that as a Colts fan with the history of great QBs and bad o-line plays), and I was right. The Colts came out with fire and desire, pounding the rock and the Vikings on the ground. New rookie Jonathan Taylor ran for over 100 yards, the first rookie Colts RB since Vick Ballard in 2012.
The defense stepped up considerably and made Kirk Cousins’ day hell. Cousins actually finished the game with an abysmal 15.9 QB rating. Buckner and Autry brought major pressure from the inside, with Buckner recording 1.5 sacks and a safety. Rivers shredded the Vikings secondary and connected with Mo Alie-Cox on deep passes. TY Hilton had a sure TD fall right out of his hands, but apparently the sun blocked him from catching the ball.
Even with the win, the injury bug hit them as they lost a playmaker on all sides of the ball: Parris Campbell on offense, Malik Hooker on defense, and Matthew Adams on special teams. However, Julian Blackmon filled in admirably for Hooker, however, and assisted on Willis’s interception. He is looking great in the Cover 2 defense in the limited snaps I’ve seen.
At 1-1 for the season, we have a fairly easy schedule coming up, playing the New York Jets in Week 3. A team ravaged by injuries, we should be winning that game. But as we’ve seen in Week 1, no game is a sure thing. We’ve seen both sides of the spectrum so far, and I expect us to be more balanced this week between passing and rushing.
Despite all the jokes, including the long run by Mostert and long 3rd down conversion for Jerick Mckinnon against SF, the Jets have a good run defense. I think the Colts will start off rushing the ball, and throw in a bit of play action, before Philip Rivers gashes the New York Colts (yeah, I said Colts) secondary. With Pierre Desir, Nate Hairston, and Quincy Wilson now on the Jets secondary, we will see many familiar faces. Add to the fact Frank Gore and Henry Anderson are on the Jets, it might seem like practice.
For our receiving corp, Alie-Cox will not set new career highs with Doyle back this week, but still might be a factor. Michael Pittman Jr. hasn’t had the stats to show for his hard work, but I believe this will be his breakout game, with 80+ yards receiving and a score. I hope TY Hilton performs well, but it looks like he is regressing after seeing him drop multiple passes to begin the season. All I am hoping for is for him to get rid of the butterfingers.
Our defense should give the Jets problems all day, as their offensive line other than their impressive rookie Mekhi Becton is mediocre. I expect Anthony Walker to step up on defense, as he’s struggled a bit lately. Darius Leonard will be his usual dominant self, and I think the defensive line will again generate interior pressure on the Jets’ offensive line. Our Rock won’t be suiting up this week, so we’ll have a depleted secondary, but I wonder if Sam Darnold will be able to take advantage before his offensive line fails him. If so, Herndon may be a dark horse with so many injuries on their receiving corp (Crowder, Perriman, Berrios, Mims).
Week 3 Colts vs. Jets Predictions:
- Colts win 31-14
- Jonathan Taylor runs for 70 yards but Jordan Wilkins gets a TD
- Philip Rivers: 310 yards and 3 TD
- Michael Pittman Jr.: 80+ yards, 1 TD
- Chris Herndon: 60+ yards, 1 TD
Tate the Brown Ogletree Down!
No, I am not trying to advocate the chopping of trees through poor spelling and random words that do not exist. The title refers to three of the many who have surprised us in the first 3 weeks of the young NFL season: Ben Tate, Andre Brown, and Kevin Ogletree.
Week 1: Kevin Ogletree – 8 rec, 114 yds, 2 TDs
Week 2: Ben Tate – 12 rush attempts, 74 yds, 2 TDs, 4 rec, 23 yds
Week 3: Andre Brown – 20 rush attempts, 113 yds, 2 TDs
And these are just a few of the surprises. Guys like Andre Morris and Dexter McCluster have shined, not to mention C.J. Spiller, who took over as starting halfback for the Buffalo Bills after Fred Jackson went down with an injury. He has put up a monster yards per carry average the past two weeks.
Many unexpected things occur in football due to injuries, weather, and hot or cold streaks. Sometimes, the coach just goes with his gut and plays the 3rd string running back 70% of the game. This leads to unexpected occurrences in the world of fantasy football and frustration for fantasy players. However, there are usually consistent and reliable performers that are always on top of their game. Others are one-week wonders. Fantasy owners like to “stream” these players and utilize the “waiver wire”. However, it is usually a gamble because those players will most likely fall back down to earth after a week or two; they cannot be trusted as a long-term option. If you put your money on them, you will most likely be watching the killcam all day. Go with the players who are usually beastin’ and you will do well throughout the season.
It is the start of Week 3 of the regular season already, and most “experts” have predicted their top players for the season, so I will release my predictions for the top fantasy players by position as I consider myself one of these “experts” (I have placed 3rd or higher every year since 2005 in Yahoo! Fantasy Football).
QB:
- Aaron Rodgers
- Tom Brady
- Matt Ryan
- Matthew Stafford
- Drew Brees
- Peyton Manning
- Tony Romo
- Eli Manning
- Michael Vick
- Jay Cutler
RB:
- Ray Rice
- LeSean McCoy
- Reggie Bush
- Arian Foster
- Adrian Peterson
- Maurice Jones-Drew
- Darren McFadden
- DeMarco Murray
- Steven Jackson
- Chris Johnson (Yes, I still believe in him)
WR:
- Calvin Johnson
- Julio Jones
- Brandon Marshall
- Andre Johnson
- Steve Smith
- Larry Fitzgerald
- Roddy White
- Victor Cruz
- Percy Harvin
- Demarius Thomas
TE:
- Jimmy Graham
- Rob Gronkowski
- Vernon Davis
- Antonio Gates
- Jason Witten
- Tony Gonzalez
- Jermichael Finley
- Aaron Hernandez
- Brandon Pettigrew
- Daniel Pitta
DEF: NY Jets, San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, Green Bay Packers, Arizona Cardinals.
K: Sebastian Janikowski, others
Linebackers in IDP leagues: Harrison, Woodley, David Harris, Beason, Ware, Mathis, Willis, D’Quell Jackson, Mayo, Urlacher, Laurenitis, Fletcher, Clay Matthews, Cushing, Hawthorne, Woodyard
Defensive backs in IDP leagues: Patrick Peterson, LaDarius Webb, Yeremiah Bell, Antoine Bethea, Laron Landry, Vontae Davis, Eric Weddle, Dontae Whitner, Jeraud Powers, Adrian Wilson, Nick Collins, Dunta Robinson
My bold prediction: Reggie Bush will end up a top 5 running back in points this season.
Just A Little Bit of Luck
A new era in Indianapolis has begun. Out the door has gone Peyton Manning and in has walked the 22-year old quarterback from Stanford, Andrew Luck. There is a lot riding on the shoulders of the #1 overall selection in the 2012 NFL Draft. After a dismal season where the Colts went 2-14 under Curtis “Goldilocks” Painter and Dan Orlovsky, expectations are high, mainly because we Colts fans are not accustomed to losing. In fact if you don’t count this past season, we have not had a losing year since 2001. However, with an entirely new front office, coaching staff, defensive scheme, and a new group of players, these young Colts will most likely feel a few bumps on the road. They are now ready to learn and mature together.
#1 overall pick Andrew Luck
We are very lucky to have had the opportunity to select Andrew Luck, no pun intended. In most cases, when a franchise quarterback leaves a team, especially one who can be considered one of the greatest, if not the greatest, QB of all time, everything falls apart and that team falls into mediocrity for years, possibly decades. Andrew Luck hasn’t even played a game in the NFL yet and we won’t know if he will be a superstar, an average QB, or a bust, but many have compared him to none other than Peyton Manning. I believe he will succeed as well. Luck has the determination, work ethic, and smarts to become a great QB in the NFL.
Andrew Luck is not the only new face on the team this year however. A tandem I’m very excited about is the Coby Fleener-Dwayne Allen duo at the tight end position. Some have compared Fleener to Jimmy Graham and Allen to Antonio Gates. I believe this duo in two years will be better than the Gronkowski-Hernandez combo over at New England. I am also excited about the new offensive line. The signing of Steele and Justice will definitely shore up the offensive line. Now, maybe RBs Donald Brown, Delone Carter, and Vick Ballard will have some room to breathe after being handed the ball.
The receiving corps looks promising. Sure-handed receivers Reggie Wayne and Austin Collie return. Newcomers include T.Y. Hilton, Donnie Avery, and LaVon Brazill.
As for the defensive side, the switch to the new 3-4 defense is interesting. That means Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis will be standing up for the first time ever. They will also have a huge defensive tackle in the middle. In past years, the Colts have used small and quick linebackers and ends. The Colts’ mindset has changed now and is going for bigger and stronger guys to occupy the defensive positions. Josh Chapman, Antonio Johnson, Chigbo Anunoby, and Brandon McKinney are among the ones fighting for that DT spot. The ends will consist of Moala, Nevis, and Cory Redding.
We also still have Pat Angerer racking up the tackles at the linebacker spot. New additions include DE/LB Tim Fugger through the draft and signed undrafted free agent ILB Larry Lumpkin to a contract. Tell me we don’t have the most awesome names for players. A writer at Stampede Blue has dubbed Tim Fugger’s special move “The Fugger Upper”.
The cornerback position is still a glaring hole however. Maybe that’s why we have 6 corners in training camp fighting for starting spots right now. The durable Antoine Bethea and the signing of Tom Zbikowski at safety should help cover up some of the mistakes by these young cornerbacks throughout the regular season.
As for kickers, Adam Vinatieri is still here. The drunken idiot Pat McAfee is still our punter. He’s got a booming leg though, so I’m not going to hate. At least we didn’t draft a punter in the third round like the Jacksonville Jaguars did.
In a nutshell:
- Ryan Grigson is the new GM and Chuck Pagano is the new head coach.
- Indianapolis Colts will be switching from a base 4-3 defense to a 3-4.
- Andrew Luck is the new face of the franchise.
- Reggie Wayne will once again become a dependable fantasy player this season.
- Players who will most likely contribute to your fantasy team: Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, Coby Fleener. And if defense is counted in your league: Pat Angerer and Antoine Bethea
- Sleeper picks: Donald Brown, Delone Carter (if he takes over the starting job), Andrew Luck (may be a decent substitute for your bye week)
I am very excited for the preseason to see what the Colts will bring to the table. To quote Jets linebacker Bart Scott, I just “can’t wait”. As for predicting their success for the 2012-2013 NFL season, I see a 5-win year and another top 5 selection in next year’s draft. With some luck (pun intended), we may win 6 or 7 games. There is still a lot to be learned, but I see a very bright future. For now, I will just sit back and enjoy my green tea latte while reading up on some Dwight Howard trade rumors.
-Richard
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Richard
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