2024 NFL Mock Draft

Draft week is finally here! We’ve been preparing for the day since the Super Bowl ended (or since our team’s last game was played) and the time has finally come. Teams will be looking to improve their team and make a run for the Super Bowl this upcoming season. As I’m sure you’ve seen hundreds of mock drafts already, I’ll throw mine in the ring for fun. I’ll keep it simple and not include any trades that may happen:

1. CHI via CAR – Caleb Williams QB USC

Caleb is locked in as the consensus top pick and there’s no reason to consider anyone else. Chicago gets a dynamic playmaker and their first potential 4000+ yard QB in their team’s history.

2. WAS – Jayden Daniels QB LSU

Jayden had a come up this past season and obliterated defenses, leading to a Heisman winner. I see a bit of Lamar Jackson-lite in him, with the ability to be electrifying on the ground with his speed while throwing the deep ball well, but he will need to learn how to not take hard hits, lead receivers with anticipation, and be more accurate in the short and intermediate throws if he wants to have a long career in the league. Washington gets their new RGIII at pick 2 here.

3. NE – Drake Maye QB UNC

Patriots may trade this pick if Washington ends up drafting Drake Maye. I have Maye as a top 2 QB in this draft class with a Justin Herbert comp. While he didn’t have playmakers at UNC, he showed off his strong arm and ball placement as well as some underrated wheels. He’ll have to be a bit more consistent at the next level to be an NFL star, but the Patriots should be confident in Maye as their signal caller of the future.

4. ARI – Marvin Harrison Jr. WR OSU

The Cardinals will probably entertain trade offers (ahem, Colts?? [if this was my Madden franchise]) but getting the top non-QB prospect of the draft should be a no-brainer. MHJ has all the tools you want in a WR and Arizona gets their number 1 for years to come.

5. LAC – Brock Bowers TE Georgia

Chargers have a new regime and will look to ground and pound. Joe Alt from Notre Dame was a popular pick here, and there is also an empty hole at the WR position after the departure of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams (Nabers was the second most popular), so my pick here is Brock Bowers, who is the best of both worlds. He is an exceptional pass catcher and a very good pass blocker. Comp is George Kittle-lite/Dallas Clark as a pass catcher.

6. NYG – Malik Nabers WR LSU

Giants addressed the offensive line earlier this offseason, but they still deperately needs playmakers after the departure of Saquon Barkley. Nabers is probably the 2nd best WR in this draft class. Odunze would be a good alternate pick as well, but Giants definitely need to pick one of the 2.

7. TEN – Joe Alt OT Notre Dame

Titans had one of the worst offensive lines last season, and taking the top offensive tackle in the draft here to protect Will Levis is an easy choice.

8. ATL – Dallas Turner DE Alabama

In need of a pass rusher, one of Dallas Turner, Laiatu Latu, Jared Verse, or Chop Robinson should be the selection here. Each of these pass rushers have flaws, but very high ceilings. Hoping they don’t go CB (Quinyon Mitchell) here because I want the Colts to pick him.

9. CHI – Byron Murphy DT Texas

Many mock Odunze to the Bears, but Byron Murphy is the best player on the defensive line in this draft, and with DJ Moore and Keenan Allen already in town, Odunze would be a luxury/premium pick. Taking Murphy should be the pick here.

10. NYJ – JC Latham OT Alabama

Jets need to protect Aaron Rodgers, and even with Odunze still on the board, they go offensive tackle and select the second best one in this year’s class. Oregon State’s Taliese Fuaga is an alternate option here, and Jets should double-triple dip on the offensive line later in the draft as well.

11. MIN – J.J. McCarthy QB Michigan

With Kirk Cousins in Atlanta, Vikings have a need at the most important position in football. I don’t think they take a chance to pick a QB in a later round and take either J.J. McCarthy or even Michael Penix here. Shot in the dark pick is Quinyon Mitchell, but again, I am hoping he falls to the Colts.

12. DEN – Rome Odunze WR Washington

Denver now has their franchise QB. I kid, I kid. They still nee a QB but who’s left of McCarthy/Penix might be too rich for them here. I was surprised Odunze was still on the board, so he’s the pick here to become the #1 target for Wilson/Stidham/mid-round QB. Shot in the dark pick is Quinyon Mitchell, but again, I am hoping he falls to the Colts.

13. LV – Quinyon Mitchell CB Toledo

AOC ain’t it and the Raiders need a QB as well, and Penix comes with injury risk but can absolutely sling it. However, arguably the top defensive back in this year’s draft is still available and the Raiders select Mitchell (crying ensues). Terrion Arnold could also be the pick here and it is a possibility they go offensive line as well with Fautanu/Fashanu.

14. NO – Olu Fashanu OT Penn St

Offensive tackle is most likely the pick here, and both Fashanu and Fautanu would be good picks for New Orleans here.

15. IND – Terrion Arnold CB Alabama

Colts badly need help on the defensive side of the ball, especially with Diggs and Ridley as WR2s within their division and Jaguars most likely picking a top 5 WR prospect this draft. Terrion Arnold would be a great pick here, as he is a fluid corner with a high floor and high ceiling. He shows the ability to play all types of coverage, and the Colts play a mix of hybrid and zone. Arnold’s very physical and attacks the ball in the air while being experienced in various zone defenses. He’s a leader in the locker room and an enthusiastic run defender, working through and around blocks to get to the ball carrier (multiple strong TFLs), which are traits Chris Ballard love.

I’d be ecstatic if Terrion was the pick here. Alternate options here are Cooper DeJean, Nate Wiggins, or Kool-Aid McKinstry, or a trade down into the 2nd round to select someone like Ennis Rakestraw. There are folks who think we’ll be picking WR (namely Brian Thomas Jr.), but that is highly unlikely to me.

16. SEA – Laiatu Latu DE UCLA

Latu is an immediate impact player and could turn out to be a steal in the mid-first for Seattle. It looks like they will be selecting a defensive player in the first round, so guys such as Jared Verse from Florida State or Chop Robinson from Penn State could also be in play here.

17. JAX – Amarius Mims OT Georgia

There are multiple needs for the Jaguars (CB/OL/WR), so there is a wide range of outcomes here. I think this draft class is very deep at WR and CB so the Jaguars will opt to shore up their offensive line with Mims. Kool-Aid or Fuaga could also be the selection here.

18. CIN – Taliese Fuaga OT Oregon St

With Mims taken a pick before the Bengals select, the next best OT in Fuaga is taken.

19. LAR – Troy Fautanu OT Washington

With Mims and Fuaga taken, Fautanu is the pick here for the Rams. The past 3 picks here are probably interchangable.

20. PIT – Kool-Aid McKinstry CB Alabama

Beefing the offensive line is a priority, but with OT being on a run, they’ll select a top 5 corner. Nate Wiggins, Cooper DeJean, or Kool-Aid could be the pick here.

21. MIA – Nate Wiggins CB Clemson

Offensive line, defensive tackle, and corner back are needs for the Dolphins, and Wiggins is a great prospect here after the departure of Howard and Grier’s love of drafting DBs. Kool-Aid or Cooper DeJean could also be the pick here. I’m tired so I won’t be giving explanations for the rest of the first round.

22. PHI – Jared Verse DE Florida State

23. MIN – Tyler Guyton OT Oklahoma

24. DAL – Graham Barton IOL Duke

25. GB – Cooper Dejean S/CB Iowa

26. TB – Chop Robinson DE Penn St

27. ARI – Brian Thomas Jr. WR LSU

28. BUF – Adonai Mitchell WR Texas

29. DET – Jordan Morgan OT Arizona

30. BAL – Darius Robinson DE Mizzou

31. SF – Patrick Paul OT Houston

32. KC – Ladd McConkey WR Georgia

Looking Ahead

The NFL Playoffs may still be going on, but the Indianapolis Colts’ season has already ended, and so the offseason has arrived. Thanks to the masterclass from C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins that effectively ended our playoff hopes, most first draft mock drafts are predicting a CB for our first round pick. There are others who are hoping we trade up to have the opportunity to draft all-world tight end Brock Bowers or even Marvin Harrison Jr., but the reality is we will have to pick at our spot (#15) or trade back and accumulate more draft picks. There are rumors of A.J. Brown being traded (2nd highest odds of him landing in Indianapolis currently) here but I don’t see that happening right now. If Michael Pittman Jr. decides to not return to Indy next season, whether under a new contract or the franchise tag, the chance of A.J. Brown coming to Indianapolis increases.

On Spotrac, the Indianapolis Colts have the 5th most cap space at $66,350,395 for the offseason. Of course there are a few of our own guys that are unrestricted free agents, including Michael Pittman Jr., Grover Stewart, Kenny Moore, Julian Blackmon, Gardner Minshew, and Zach Moss. Personally, I hope we are able to re-sign all of them, but this won’t be possible unless we release a player or two currently under contract (sorry Mo Alie-Cox).

Gus Bradley is back for 2024. And that should strike fear into the hearts of Colts fans everywhere. Not all the blame can be placed on Gus Bradley, but I would argue a large part of our poor defense this season was due to Gus being hard-headed and leaving our secondary hung out to dry. Gus decided to rarely (if ever) call a blitz and relied on our defensive line to generate pressure. If you asked the average NFL fan to name two players on our defensive line, they probably won’t be able to. DeForest Buckner has been the only player who put consistent pressure on the QB, with Ebukam being average with the pass rush. Our recent draft picks Odeyinbgo and Adebawore have been underwhelming, with Kwity Paye straight up disappearing in some games. Why then would Gus not call for some slot corner blitzes or rush the linebackers? Especially when E.J. Speed and Zaire Franklin are terrible coverage linebackers.

What I want to see next season is Nick Cross play the sub-LB role (he has been excellent at defending the run this season so no concerns there) so we have more speed in the secondary. I want to see more blitzing LBs and less soft zone coverages and more man from Brents/Moore/Jones/Flowers and see what they can do when they don’t have to defend a WR for a longer duration. I want to see more Cover 1 or 2 with a Cover 0 thrown in once in a while. I want to see aggressive plays on the ball and not the soft “bend don’t break” defense that we saw a while back when we wasted a lot of the Peyton Manning years. This is what I want to see, but this probably won’t be what I get. So we’ll have to go another direction – sign and draft better players. If I am Chris Ballard, the below are what I would do with the current roster:

1. Cut Mo Alie-Cox – With Mallory shaping up to be our top receiving TE (until Jelani Woods is back healthy) and Granson as a capable backup (not sure if Ogletree is returning), Mo’s salary is too much for the production he brings. He isn’t a capable pass blocker, only better than Will Fries and Freeland (who isn’t better than Freeland?), and another receiving TE for ~$6 million is a luxury we don’t need. I’d cut Mo and use the cap space to re-sign players.
2. Re-sign Kenny Moore – Kenny is one of the top slot corners in the league, and if we are able to re-sign him(Spotrac has him at a Market Value of ~$9 million), that would be ideal. Otherwise, we’d have to look at CB in the draft as a top priority, and the top 5 here are Cooper DeJean, Nate Wiggins, Lassiter, Max Melton, and Terrion Arnold)
3. Re-sign Grover Stewart – Big Grove has been a run stopper his entire career, and having him paired with Buckner would be nice. However, Spotrac’s MV on Grover is ~$11 million, and the Colts could go the younger route for DT2 in this year’s draft. I’m thinking Kris Jenkins, Johnny Newton (good speed rusher but mediore run defense), Byron Murphy II, or Brandon Dorlus later in the draft.
4. Re-sign Michael Pittman Jr. – MPJ has been our only consistent receiver the past few years so we need to lock him up. He is going to explore other options in free agency but I hope we are able to re-sign him or place him on the franchise tag. Spotrac values him at around $22 million, so this would cover a chunk of the cap space, though it would be well worth it.
5. Sign Josh Dobbs – This season has proven having a good backup QB is essential. Although Minshew has played well this season, he has been very inconsistent. Josh Dobbs (or Tyrod Taylor) might command a similar salary at around $5-6 million per year, and I would sign the Passtronaut for the upside he brings, with a playstyle more similar to Anthony Richardson. That Josh Dobbs to Josh Downs connection would be sick. I’d be open to drafting a QB if J.J. McCarthy or Michael Pratt are still available in the mid-rounds.
6. Sign Townsend or Bojorquez – Can we get Deestroying? Nah I’m just playin. I’d like Tommy Townsend or Corey Bojorquez here at around $4-5 million as they are top 5 in the league, and Rigo has been an average punter this season (#16). However, if we’re able to re-sign Rigo for under $4 million, I’ll take it, as the cupboard for the other available free agent options out there is bare (Braden Mann and Jake Bailey, looking at you).
7. Draft a linebacker – I wish we retained Okereke. Our LB coverage has not been good this season with Zaire Franklin and E.J. Speed. I want Queen or one of the Devins but some team will probably give them a big contract we can’t afford. Therefore, drafting a LB should be a top 3 priority in the draft. There aren’t many elite inside linebackers in this year’s draft, but my targets here are Junior Colson and Cedric Gray early or Marist Liufau and Edgerrin Cooper in the later rounds.
8. Re-sign Zach Moss – In JT’s absense and as a spell HB, Zach has been great in his role. He may be offered a bigger contract from an RB-needy team, but I would like to retain him here at around $4.5 million).
9. 2024 NFL Draft targets:
   – Round 1 Pick 15: Cooper DeJean, Nate Wiggins, Lassiter, Max Melton, and Terrion Arnold
   – Round 2 Pick 43: Byron Murphy II, Kris Jenkins, Junior Colson
   – Round 3 Pick 74: JJ McCarthy, Michael Pratt, Cedric Gray
   – Round 4 Pick 109: Marist Liufau, Edgerrin Cooper
10. Free agents to target – after the re-signs and then setting aside roughly $10 million for the Colts’ draft picks, there will be ~$12 million to play around in free agency. I’d like to bring in a RG such as Kevin Zeitler for ($7.5 million) and Jamal Agnew ($4 million) for kick/punt returner and WR depth.

Improving the defense is the clear focal point of this offseason, and for good reason. With promising young QBs in our division in Stroud, Lawrence, and Levis, stopping them is key. All that being said, our franchise is dependent on Anthony Richardson’s health. If he is healthy, the Colts can win every single game and mask the deficiencies of the Gus Bradley defense. Otherwise, we’ll need to hope our rookies and new additions step up on the defensive side. Our team is built to be dynamic while controlling the clock, play with a lead, and keep the defense fresh (or fresher than normal) as we play the bend-don’t-break defense hoping the opposing offenses messes up. There isn’t any more we can improve on the offensive side other than RG and depth, but there is plenty of weaknesses on defense. I hope to see some exciting additions on the defensive side of the ball this offseason and get excited for Colts football again.

Win or Go Home

It is do or die time. The winner of Colts vs. Texans gets to advance to the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs while the loser gets to potentially play the New York Football Giants next season, which means the stakes are really high. This game features two Coach of the Year candidates, and there is a really good chance the coach of the winning team will be awarded Coach of the Year. With Joe Buck and Troy Aikman as commentary crew, there is absolutely no doubt this game will be as exciting in the booth as on the field. This should be a very close game on paper, and hopefully we have the ghost of TY Hilton to guide us to victory through the air instead of leaving the game up for the officiating crew to decide the winner (more on that later).

Trying something new, I will award a point for any pro-Colts factors and deduct a point for any pro-Texans factors.

Offensive Playcalling: The Texans’ OC Bobby Slowik is a young playcaller, but he has done well with Stroud this season, creating a dynamic offense that is 4th in the NFL in passing yards. Coming from the Shanahan coaching tree doesn’t hurt. On the Colts’ side, Shane Steichen has made the most of what he was handed, having to deal with JT’s early season contract dispute/injury and creating entirely new gameplans for Gardner Minshew. I will give this an even ( – ) rating.

Defense/Defensive Playcalling: Both defensive playcallers are similar in that they both rely on the front 4 to generate QB pressure. However, one of these teams is 2nd in allowed yards per carry and the Colts are allowing 4.2 yards per carry. Both the Texans and Colts have a swiss cheese passing defense so that is an even rating. Grover Stewart being out several weeks definitely hampered the line, but opposing RBs aren’t exactly terrified of our line. Will Anderson for the Texans’ is injured but should be able to play, and how much the injury affects him is something to watch. Kenny Moore will be back for this game, and I hope they dial up a blitz with him to switch things up. Giving the nod to the Texans here for their slightly worse pass defense but much better run defense (-1).

Quarterback: Stroud vs. Minshew. Not much explanation needed really. A rookie of the year candidate vs. a fine but inconsistent backup quarterback who can make splash plays from time to time but is turnover-prone. (-1)

Running Back: Jonathan Taylor/Zach Moss/Sermon vs. Singletary/Pierce. Jonathan Taylor is still one of the best RBs in the league when healthy, but he’s facing a tough Texans front allowing only 3.3 yards/carry. Singletary is average but is facing a Colts’ defense that has been porous vs. the rush. (+1).

Pass Catchers: Pittman/Downs/Pierce/Granson is a better group compared to Nico Collins/injured Noah Brown/injured Robert Woods/Dalton Schultz. If Texans’ had a healthy Tank Dell, this is a different story. (+1).

Offensive Line: Both Texans (Tunsil & Mason) and Colts (Kelly & Nelson) have key injured players who didn’t practice yesterday. Their status will be depending on their availability for Thursday’s practice. With Braden Smith back and Raimann having an outstanding year, the Colts’ offensive line is much better than the Texans’, who’ve been plagued with injuries throughout the line all season. The Colts’ line has allowed ample time for Minshew to stay in the pocket and make plays, and last week they finally started and finished the game in one piece for the first time in a long time (+1).

Defensive Line: Both teams’ defensive lines are key to stopping the rush and generating pressure on the QB, and with Grover Stewart back, Colts have one of the best 1-2 punch in the league at inside tackle on paper. Realistically, they haven’t played up to expectation and allowed a lot more rushing yards. The Texans have been great at stopping the run (3rd in rush defense), with ouststanding seasons from Will Anderson and Jonathan Greenard. They’ve had their fair share of injuries, however, including their inside DTs in Collins and Rankins, so we’ll have to see how it plays out. Edge goes Colts as health plays an important role in this matchup (+1).

Secondary: The Colts’ secondary vs. Raiders was JuJu Brents/Jaylon Jones/Lammons at CB with Nick Cross and Ronnie Harrison Jr. up top. That is a YOUNG group of defensive backs. Luckily, we will get Kenny Moore back, but Texans have the edge here. Even with Stingley on IR, Jimmie Ward has been a good slot corner, and Pitre and Kareem Jackson have been alright. (-1).

Referees/Officiating: Officiating has been pretty controversial across the board, but Bill Vinovich’s crew will be officiating Colts-Texans. I believe this will be the X-Factor of the game, and unfortunately for the Colts, luck isn’t on our side. According to Football Reference, the home winning percentage in games he officiated was 40% this season, with the league average at 56%. This may mean nothing but seems less than ideal. I’ll be on the lookout for some ticky tack holding calls that kills drives for the Colts or defensive pass interference calls that go the Texans’ way. This plays into Stroud’s advantage as they will push the ball a lot more through the air, and a large gain through a DPI will be momentum-shifting (-1).

Overall, the score comes out even (-), and the game may play out as such. Either way, we have overachieved in a season we thought was lost when Anthony Richardson went down for the year, and here’s to hoping our season doesn’t end this weekend.

My (Homer) Predictions:

• Colts 27 Texans 23
• Gardner Minshew: 273 yards, 2 TDs
• C.J. Stroud: 290 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT
• Jonathan Taylor: 92 yards, 1 TD
• Devin Singletary: 70 yards
• Pittman 95 yds/Downs 70 yds/Pierce 55 yds

My (Realistic) Predictions:

• Colts 20 Texans 27
• Gardner Minshew: 233 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
• C.J. Stroud: 290 yards, 2 TDs
• Jonathan Taylor: 72 yards, 1 TD
• Devin Singletary: 60 yards, 1 TD
• Pittman 75 yds/Downs 50 yds/Pierce 40 yds

Is It Time To Say Goodbye?

The inevitable Jonathan Taylor news has come out. The Indianapolis Colts have granted JT permission to seek a trade as of this afternoon. According to some sources, they are seeking significant trade compensation for Taylor. They are looking for a first-round draft pick or a collection of picks that would equate to a first rounder. Even though he is just a couple years removed from being the 2021 RB1, he arrived at camp still recovering from his right ankle surgery. He apparently also failed his physical and was placed on the PUP list while not practicing since. I wrote I was on the side of extending Jonathan Taylor last month, but I can also see the other side of the argument if the news of him still hurt are true.

At this point, he would be a one year rental on a rebuilding team who would probably leave us next off-season for nothing. Although he is still very young, him and his agent have created drama and the relationship with the Colts’ front office seems irreparable. A half glass empty front office will picture this same issue happening for their own team next season when JT’s contract is up and opt to stay far away. A half glass full front office will still see a young game-changing running back who can take it to the house at any play. We’ll see how that plays out soon.

My thoughts? It is what it is. JT had requested a trade and the Colts have granted it now, and that’s where we stand. The other players on the Colts will have to move on and step up. The likes of Zach Moss, Deon Jackson, Evan Hull, Jake Funk, and Kenyan Drake aren’t going to keep anyone up at night, but the Colts will have to make do with what they have and employ a RB-committee approach. Our best runner probably doesn’t even play RB, and I fully believe Anthony Richardson will get 8-10 carries a game. Having Moss/Jackson split the straight handoffs and having Hull on passing downs will suffice.

The best and most unlikely situation would be for the Colts to receive a first-rounder from a team such as the Rams, Buccaneers, or the Cardinals. These 3 teams are probably going to be pathetic this season and could go 1-2-3 in next season’s draft. The problem is they know it themselves. This scenario is unlikely because these 3 teams will be looking to draft a franchise signal caller. Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Brock Bowers will all be highly sought after. If anything, they would be more willing to give up their 2nd or 3rd round pick, which would still be great. The Colts would be able to take someone who essentially fell from the 1st round. There isn’t a generational talent at RB in 2024 like Bijan Robinson, but the depth is arguably much better. A smart strategy would be to accumulate multiple picks, and I’d be content if we received a 2nd and 3rd from one of these 3 teams.

Another likely scenario would be the Colts receiving a first round pick from a contending team. Many had predicted Miami to go after Dalvin Cook, but he eventually signed with the Jets. Archane is dealing with an injury, so it does make sense if the Dolphins try to deal with the Colts. A healthy Taylor, Tua, and Tyreke would make that Dolphins offense even more dangerous. The downside of this is they might make noise in the division or even in the playoffs, and that does not bode well for the Colts as their pick would be worth less. To me, that isn’t the end of the world, because they could package both their first round picks to move up to potentially have a shot at Marvin Harrison Jr. if the chips fall where they may. If the Colts are bad (and it’s very possible they are), they may be able to outright select MHJ and also have another shot at a blue chip player (hopefully on defense).

Some other possibilities include the Minnesota Vikings, New Orleans Saints, or Dallas Cowboys. There are questions with the backfields, with Mattisson and Pollard from the Vikings and Cowboys respectively haven’t had full workload experience and no depth behind them. The Saints have Kamara but has a suspension looming.

Any trade that happens will probably be beneficial for the Colts, but it might be tough to pull off. I’m not sure if teams are willing to trade that draft capital as well as give an extension to a still-injured player. JT holding out this season and forfeiting his salary would also be detrimental to both parties. He would be another year older with an injury history and contract disputes while also not having anything recent to show for a big contract he wants. Recent history shows holdouts aren’t the best idea, as Austin Ekeler and Lamar Jackson weren’t successful with the trade requests, and Josh Jacobs is still on his holdout. Time will tell what happens, but the future is no longer dim with an aging quarterback and mediocre coach; Anthony Richardson is our franchise QB, and with his work ethic, he will also volunteer to be our franchise running back.

Run It Back

NFL running back contracts are not selling like hot cakes lately. In fact, they’ve been going stale. Multiple running backs in the league have been holding out of training camp until they receive a new contract. 2 of the top RBs in Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley had been holding out, with the latter recently signing a contract reluctantly. Many old heads feel it is unfair for their position group to be underpaid, and some argue you can just have another guy who gets paid 15% of the top RBs while producing 80% of their output. They also argue RB by committee is the approach right now and it has historically been successful. They also argue many of these RBs are getting overpaid with their contract. Most players nowadays can be considered “overpaid” now, thanks to inflation, rising salary cap each year, etc. Cap max is now at 224 mil, while just 2 years ago, it was 182.5 mi.

The unfortunate fact of the matter is, however, Indianapolis is not the most attractive destination, especially when your team has won under 5 games last season and have had a QB-carousel every season since Andrew Luck. Even with an “overpay”, prospective free agents may not want to sign on the dotted line and opt to sign with a bigger and more attractive market like Chicago, New York, Los Angeles, or even Kansas City and Green Bay.

Speaking of Kansas City, they’ve had a unique situation in employing arguably the greatest QB of our generation. Because of that, they can run mediocre backs out onto the field like Edwards-Helaire. In addition, guys like Edwards-Helaire and Pacheco are on their rookie contracts. If you take a look at all the playoff teams, almost all of them have a top 5 QB or have a good RB. Daniel Jones had Saquon and 49ers had CMC. While the 49ers may have made the NFC title game with just Elijah Mitchell and their top defensive unit, the Giants definitely would not have. The Titans would be perennial bottom dwellers without Derrick Henry. Teams such as the Bills and Chiefs can get away with any running back with a QB like Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. Teams such as the Colts cannot.

Also on their rookie contract is Jonathan Taylor. He has a year left on his contract, and if the Colts want to place the franchise tag on him next seawson, they can. JT is not exactly in a similar situation as Saquon Barkley, as the Giants failed to extend their best player early. I had hoped Colts would use this as leverage and sign him to a team-friendly extension. Instead, our outspoken owner Jim Irsay went the opposite direction with this tweet. In response, Jonathan Taylor’s agent fired back and caused a riff between JT and the Colts. JT also removed any team affiliation on his Twitter and Instagram accounts.

Although JT’s agent is acting very inexperienced and showing clown tendencies, this should not have been a public issue. Although Irsay clarified the tweet was directed at the NFL RB position group in general, the timing was suspect and we all can read between the lines. We know he doesn’t want to give JT a long extension. With Anthony Richardson on a rookie contract for the next 4 years and QB being historically the highest paid position in the league, we can shore up other positions, and paying arguably the best running back in the league should be the top priority. Let Anthony and Jonathan create the best 1-2 tandem in the league with their rushing threat.

Although he is coming off an injury year, I would extend Taylor to a 3-year contract extension and maximize the rest of the team. We really need to focus on the defensive side of the ball and sign players. We are among the teams with the most cap space. The only teams with more cap space than we do: Bears, Cardinals, Jets, Cowboys, and Panthers. Those teams are not playoff teams and we should not stoop down to that level. Which team has the least cap space this season? The Super Bowl winners, KC Chiefs. None of us should even be concerned with these contracts, as they’re only going to get bigger and bigger in the future.

I have a gripe

I have a gripe. The annual Madden NFL ratings have been released and our Colts have been lowballed again. Remember when EA ranked Clyde Edwards-Helaire above Jonathan Taylor? I sure did. Where are they both now? Well, Jonathan Taylor is arguably the best running back in the league and Clyde Edwards-Helaire is hanging by a thread, competing with an undrafted guy named Deneric Prince for the Kansas City Chiefs’ RB3 spot. Yeah.

Madden is shamefully doing the same thing again. I guess when your commentary and cut scenes has been the same for the last decade, you feel like another year of the same thing won’t hurt. This is my case for ANTHONY RICHARDSON.

Anthony Richardson, QB (70) – He has a similar body type to Cam Newton, who entered the game at a 77 Overall with 94 acceleration. In Madden 24, Anthony Richardson has a (checks notes) 70 overall and 92 acceleration. I’m confused. A faster 40-yard dash should warrant a higher acceleration, or am I missing something? Anthony Richardson smoked Cam Newton’s 2011 numbers at the NFL Combine (click to see here) but has a lower rating?

Now maybe it was a different game back then (lol) and the old team has been fired for no productivity (lol), so let’s take a look at some comparisons for Madden 24 itself. Justin Fields, in comparison, has a 94 speed and 95 acceleration vs. Richardson’s 91 speed and 92 acceleration. Fields in the NFL Combine ran a 4.44, and that is .01 seconds longer than Richardson’s 4.43. So based off the two examples above, Richardson’s acceleration should at LEAST be 95.

Anthony Richardson’s 92 acceleration is tied with Josh Allen. Can you guess Josh Allen’s 40-time? Hint: It’s not 4.5. It’s not even 4.6. It is 4.76. At this point, you wonder if Madden ratings are compiled by idiots, and you are right. If you answered “4.76” on an exam when the correct answer was “4.43”, you won’t get full credit almost all of the time. At EA Sports, this may be a promotion for thinking out of the box.

Kyler Murray ran a 4.44 and has a 94 acceleration. Almost there but no dice. Kyler is also accelerating away from defenses and most likely away from the team after this season, so it seems like outside factors do not really matter. Malik Willis is the only one with a faster 40-time (4.39 with a 93 acceleration), but he is a TItan, so the only acceleration that matters is Colts fans is running out the clock with a QB kneel at the end of the game.

Keenan Allen’s famous gripe, “strength rating a 69 like a little boy“, is hilarious and true. It is even more true when Richardson’s strength rating is not too far from that, a 73. Just watch any of his college games: time after time, he’ll break a tackle or just run over opposing defenses. His elusiveness should be ranked higher. See Exhibit A and any of his game tape.

In the end, Anthony Richardson should at least be a 95 acceleration with higher elusiveness, strength, and awareness. Even though Madden has dropped the ball as often as Nelson Agholor, they need to get this one corrected.

2023-2024 Season Fantasy Football Ranks

I ranked NFL players last year around July, so it’s almost that time. Let’s take a look at my 2023-2024 fantasy football rankings. I’ll throw in some sleeper picks to make things spicy.

Quarterback

Year after year, I predict a slight dropoff from Patrick Mahomes due to a revolving door in the WR room, yet year after year, he sits atop the QB rankings. I predicted Josh Allen last season to be QB1, so I’ll keep tradition and pick a QB1 not name Mahomes for this season: Joey B.

1. Joe Burrow
2. Patrick Mahomes
3. Josh Allen
4. Justin Herbert
5. Jalen Hurts
6. Justin Fields
7. Anthony Richardson
8. Lamar Jackson
9. Trevor Lawrence
10. Derek Carr

Surprised? Call me a homer with blue-tint shades, but I see Anthony Richardson with a top 10 QB floor this season, barring injury. I see him exceeding 2022 Hurts and 2023 Fields with his rushing ability, and if Pierce, Downs, or Woods break out (semi-big if), watch out. Richardson has Fields speed in a Cam Newton body, and the Colts are expected to have growing pains as they’re taking a gamble with a very young secondary. Right now, I only have Richardson ranked right below Fields because I think the addition of DJ Moore will help Fields ascend. I’m ranking Herbert high also with the addition of deep threat Quentin Johnston and a new offensive system that lets him command the offense more. Trevor Lawrence and Derek Carr round out the top 10 with Ridley back in the mix and a good receiver room in Olave/Shaheed/Thomas, respectively.

Running Back

As always, I have JT as the top RB. With the rushing threat of Richardson, defenders may hesitate to be aggressive in tackling JT, and a little hesitation can easily let Taylor take it to the house.

1. Jonathan Taylor
2. Christian McCaffrey
3. Najee Harris
4. Austin Ekeler
5. Saquon Barkley
6. Nick Chubb
7. Joe Mixon
8. Dalvin Cook
9. JK Dobbins
10. Bijan Robinson

Najee had a down year last season, but I’ll forever believe in him (he’s my Trey Sermon/Shenault of the first few rounds). I have Bijan ranked a bit lower than his current projected rank/ADP because I don’t see him getting significantly more snaps than Tyler Allgeier. JK Dobbins creeps into the top 10 if he stays healthy, with a potentially more dynamic Ravens offense.

Receiver

Yep, I look like a complete fool, ranking Pittman Jr. as the #2 WR last year (maybe I should fade my AR and JT ranks a bit, but what fun would that be?). I did rank Jefferson at WR1 correctly, and that’s all that matters.

1. Justin Jefferson
2. Ja’Marr Chase
3. Cooper Kupp
4. Michael Pit..(jk…) Davante Adams
5. Amon-Ra St. Brown
6. CeeDee Lamb
7. AJ Brown
8. Stefon Diggs
9. Garrett Wilson
10. Jerry Jeudy
11. DJ Moore
12. Tyreke Hill
13. Mike Williams
14. Tee Higgins
15. Treylon Burks
16. Amari Cooper
17. Christian Watson
18. Chris Olave
19. DeAndre Hopkins
20. Alec Pierce

Sneaked a long shot in last minute. I was going to put Smith-Njigba here but I wanted to have a deep sleeper and see how they fare. Funnily, there is a better chance of Pierce being in the top 20 than MPJ last season at WR2.

Tight End

I might just be a KC hater, as I fade Kelce every year in my rankings. This year won’t be any different. I have Andrews as TE1 this year; he won’t get as much volume with the Ravens having a much better WR room, but I think he’ll have more red zone opportunities and touchdowns to offset that.

1. Mark Andrews
2. Travis Kelce
3. TJ Hockenson
4. George Kittle
5. Darren Waller
6. Chigoziem Okonkwo
7. Kyle Pitts
8. Dalton Schultz
9. Dallas Goedert
10. Pat Freirmuth

I was very tempted to have Jelani Woods here but then I remembered Richardson won’t be accurate enough in the middle of the field. I wouldn’t be surprised if he does develop a rapport with Woods however. I have Okonkwo as a sleeper TE as rookie QBs tend to rely on TEs as a safety blanket, and that is partly why I have Schultz in the top 10 as well.

Indianapolis Colts 2023 NFL Draft Analysis

The 2023 NFL Draft is finally over, and now we wait 4 months for the regular season to start. This draft was the most exciting in recent memory, since we had the highest pick at #4 since we drafted a certain QB from Stanford with the first overall pick in the draft. Beyond that, I’m excited for all the draft picks overall and the season cannot come any sooner. Here’s a recap of the Colts’ selections:

– Round 1, Pick 4 – Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida

– Round 2, Pick 44 (From ATL) – Julius Brents, CB, Kansas State

– Round 3, Pick 79 (From WAS) – Josh Downs, WR, North Carolina

– Round 4, Pick 106- Blake Freeland, OT, BYU

– Round 4, Pick 110 (From ATL via TEN) – Adetomiwa Adebawore, DT, Northwestern

– Round 5, Pick 138 – Darius Rush, CB, South Carolina

– Round 5, Pick 158 (From MIN) – Daniel Scott, S, California

– Round 5, Pick 162 (From BUF)- Will Mallory, TE, Miami (FL)

– Round 5, Pick 176* (From DAL) -Evan Hull, RB, Northwestern

– Round 7, Pick 211* (from MIN) – Titus Leo, LB, Wagner

– Round 7, Pick 221 – Jaylon Jones, CB, Texas A&M

– Round 7, Pick 236 (From TB) – Jake Witt, OT, Northern Michigan

What a promising class. Chris Ballard stuck to his draft strategy and drafted players with high athletic traits (RAS of only 9 and above please), and came out of the draft with a great haul. Leading the pack is, of course, Anthony Richardson, who had a perfect RAS of 10:

1. Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida – Richardson is the type of gamble we need. I previously mentioned Young and Stroud had higher floors, but a high ceiling is what we need in order to be in the upper echelon of QBs in the AFC, and that’s what Richardson has. Accuracy issues and footwork are his main concerns, and if Steichen fixes that, I can see Richardson as a top 10 QB in the league. His ability to escape the pocket and create plays will make our offensive line look much better as well.
2. Julius Brents, CB, Kansas State – Ballard loves that athleticism in Brents. He’s definitely a Day 1 starter, as he fills a large need at CB after Gilmore was traded Dallas. Kenny Moore should not be covering wideouts on the outside, so we need the CBs in this draft class to step up. I hope we go after Griffin in free agency as well, but after drafting Darius Rush and Jaylon Jones, Ballard might be confident in moving forward with this group.
3. Josh Downs, WR, North Carolina – I didn’t have Josh Downs on my radar (I only researched Flowers and Smith-Njigba honestly) as I thought Ballard was confident in our WR group, but alas. After watching the highlights (lol), this guy is going to be a great security blanket for Richardson if he is able to beat McKenzie for the slot role. He’s shifty and runs QB-friendly routes.
4. Blake Freeland, OT, BYU – Oof. Ringo was picked one spot ahead of Freeland, and I believe Ballard would have grabbed Ringo if the Eagles didn’t. I had Dawand Jones as the best available OT here, but I don’t get paid for my evaluation. Freeland has a 9.83 RAS, and has the flexibility to play Guard. Based on the 0 scouting I did on Freeland, I like the pick.
5. Adetomiwa Adebawore, DT, Northwestern – He is 6’2”, 282 pounds (with a 33 7’8” arms), disruptive, explosive, and has a high motor. He’ll be a great rotational player for Stewart/Buckner in the middle of the line. The 9.72 RAS helps.
6. Darius Rush, CB, South Carolina – Doubling down on cornerback in a semi-deep draft in the secondary. RAS of 9.81 and he is a bit quicker than Brents, so he could cover the X receiver from time to time. Ballard loves that he is an aggressive corner who’s willing to defend the run too.
7. Daniel Scott, S, California – Scott has a RAS of 9.8 and is also a physical run defender. He fits the Colts’ history of great run defending safeties, but I hope he doesn’t turn out as injury prone as they are (Sanders, Gaethers, etc.). I’m loving the young safety room with Cross, Blackmon, Rodney Thomas II.
8. Will Mallory, TE, Miami (FL) – Is he the next Jimmy Graham? He has a high RAS (9.05), but I was willing to forego the tight end position in this draft as we just drafted Woods and we still have Granson and Cox on the roster. Either way, if we had a Gronk-Aaron Hernandez combo in terms of 2TE receiving threat (and not the other stuff), that would be deadly.
9. Evan Hull, RB, Northwestern – With a RAS of 9.32, he can replace Hines as our pass-catching back. He’ll be a good checkdown option for Richardson if needed.
10. Titus Leo, LB, Wagner – My favorite draft pick here, and that is 100% because he is a Leo and coincidentally also lives in Sheepshead Bay, Brooklyn. He is a small school sleeper (from Wagner College), and I hope he steps in and succeeds, as we definitely need rotational pass rushers. With that said, I have been planning a surprise for my wife, and here’s the surprise video. Speaking of percentages, I am 100% confident she does not read my posts.
11. Jaylon Jones, CB, Texas A&M – Adding another athletic corner into the pot. Jones has a RAS of ONLY 8.79, and he’s another big long cornerback like Brents. His weakness is in man coverage but should fit well in Gus Bradley’s Cover 3 system.
12. Jake Witt, OT, Northern Michigan – This guy played basketball in high school apparently and used to be a tight end. His RAS is 9.8. Can’t really get any better than that as a 7th rounder. Looking forward to seeing him compete.

In conclusion, I love what Chris Ballard has done in this draft class, but of course this is just on paper and we’ll have to see how it plays out on the field. For now, I’ll just be dreaming of Richardson evading a rush and throwing a jump ball to Woods or dropping a long go route to Pierce. I think Richardson will start the pre-season backing up Minshew, but I don’t see him sitting on the bench for too long. There is a great chance he starts opening day with the major upside that he has.

The cornerback position was a major need, and we drafted three cornerbacks and will potentially add another one in free agency. Right guard was a position of need also, and a big undrafted signing was Emil Ekiyor Jr., a Guard from Alabama. He’ll compete with Fries, and I’d think Ballard will look to sign another guard in free agency to compete.

My preliminary grade for this draft is an A. We filled the top 2 biggest needs with athletic players with high ceilings, while drafting depth at other positions. My concern is we did not take a linebacker until we drafted Titus, and even he is more of a traditional edge rusher. With the departure of Okereke, we still need a MLB, and that is why this draft wasn’t an A+. That being said, I’m excited for the season to start, and even if there are growing pains to start, it will at least be exciting to see Steichen’s mastermind offense and to see Richardson improvise and pull off amazing plays when the pocket breaks down.

I’m Sorry, Mr. Jackson

Lamar Jackson was recently franchise-tagged by the Baltimore Ravens and rumors started swirling that the Colts should go after him instead of drafting a QB this draft. For me, my rankings would be:

1. Getting Stroud or Young at #4, no trade

2. Trading down and acquiring additional pick(s) but stay within the top 10 to get Levis or Richardson. The Carolina Colts may be a good trade partner here.

3. Drafting Will Anderson if somehow Chicago and Arizona pass on him or if Stroud/Young are taken before our pick. Draft a QB in a later round. It is unlikely, but maybe Levis will still be there at #35 or we maneuver and trade back up to the first round.

4. Sign Lamar, giving up ’23 first rounder and ’24 first rounder. If we’re bad, we take Arch Manning in the ’26 draft.

Addressing offering a contract at a high-level view, Lamar Jackson is not the answer to all our problems, especially if he is representing himself and looking for a fully guaranteed deal that would cripple our salary cap and future with no room to improve at the other positions. That risk is too high when you’re not just a QB away from contending for a Super Bowl.

Carson Wentz finished 3rd in MVP voting in 2018. After a major injury, he was never the same. Lamar Jackson was MVP in 2019 (4 years removed) and so far, he hasn’t been able to finish the last two seasons. Carson isn’t Lamar, but things in the NFL can change in the blink of an eye. Cutting our losses with Wentz was tough, but cutting our losses with Lamar would be a lot tougher. Cutting our losses with whoever we draft would be easy. If other NFL franchises (Baltimore included) themselves don’t want to pay Lamar all that, the Colts shouldn’t either.

Some might argue that any player we draft or sign is one injury from ending their career and saying it is not a reason to discount Lamar any more than it is to discount Young (who hurt his shoulder) or Levis (who had shoulder and toe injuries). However, the risk is higher when you’re giving a QB with a tendency to default to running $50+ million per year and giving up multiple first round draft picks vs. having a QB on a rookie contract. I think if our offensive line didn’t have all the question marks, I’d be content with going after Lamar, but right now I’m on the side of drafting a QB at #4, taking advantage of the salary cap freedom, and looking to improve the rest of the team.

We already know who Lamar Jackson is; there is someone in this year’s draft who we know can also run but has a higher ceiling. The only difference passing-wise to me between Lamar and Anthony Richardson is Lamar is good with throwing to the middle of the field and Richardson is good with the deep ball and outside the numbers. We still have question marks at the TE position (although Jelani Woods has all the measurables), while Lamar Jackson had Mark Andrews (top 2 TE in the NFL) as his go-to, and that’s who most of the targets to the middle of the field reside.

I think NFL teams see Richardson and realize he is potentially a Lamar clone in a Cam Newton body so they are willing to take a chance on him. Even though he is far from a sure thing, the upside far outweighs the downside. With the NFL combine results, teams are falling deeper in love with the idea of Richardson on their team.

On the other hand, because we need a QB, everyone (mostly the media and the fans’ echo chamber) is overhyping and over-evaluating the value of the QBs in this draft class. I don’t see any trades happening at the top of the draft, and I think one of the top 4 QBs (most likely Levis) may fall out of the top 10. Richardson is still very raw and will need at least a couple of years to unlock his potential in the passing game. I don’t see any teams trading up to the top 5 and reaching for him.

I also think it isn’t in Ballard’s blood to give out that kind of massive contract to anyone and also give away draft picks in the process. On the flip side, if he has already traded the #4 away for more picks (one that hopefully includes a ’24 first rounder), he might be more inclined to go after Lamar.

None of us are in that war room, and it’ll be very interesting to see how this all unfolds. It would be fun as heck to watch guaranteed MVP-level production at the QB position, and we’d instantly be division favorites again. What isn’t fun is being in salary cap hell with your backup QB being the starter because Lamar is injured (and not enough cap space available to improve the rest of the team) and being in purgatory because we are good but not good enough to contend for a Super Bowl (therefore, not having a high draft pick), which I think is more likely. The great philosopher Homer J. Simpson once said, “a boat’s a boat, but the mystery box could be anything!” In this instance, we know who Lamar is (a luxury boat), but the mystery box is closer to a luxury boat than a lil’ yachty, and I’m willing to take that chance.

Shane-O-Mac

The head coaching search is finally over, and the Indianapolis Colts have hired former Eagles’ Shane Steichen to become their new head coach. A few weeks ago, Brian Callahan was my favorite for the job, as he would inherit a similar weakness the Bengals had – a weak offensive line. He has a good offensive mind and creative at getting his playmakers the ball. That said, his run game play calling was uninspiring, with Joe Mixon getting tackled for losses time after time on slow developing straight run plays.

In comes Shane Steichen, who is a much better fit due to the familiarity of the Eagles’ offense. Some are already clamoring Reich 2.0, but I read a simple quote from Shane that stuck and made me deter any notion he’ll be similar to Reich: “If something is working, stay with it.” And we’ve seen it many times this season. How many QB sneaks from Hurts have you watched this season? It seemed like every time the Eagles had short yardage to go, they ran a QB sneak. Defenses see this coming and still cannot stop it. How many times have they got back to back QB draws, or back to back throws to either Devonta or AJ? Plenty. If the defense can’t stop you, why would you call anything else? Keep it simple, and keep running it back until they stop it. The Eagles were among the best in offense this past season, and although they fell a game short of the ultimate Super Bowl, looked mostly unstoppable.

This is what the Colts need, not unpredictable and head scratching play calling. There are already enough problems as is, with the Colts offensive line regressing this past season. Reich’s mentality seemed like, ‘if something isn’t working, try it again until it works.’ Plenty of times Reich would draw up long developing plays for a struggling offensive line. Plenty of times Reich would have the wrong personnel at the goal line. And plenty of times, Reich would call the wildest plays on 3rd and short (a Matt Ryan play action with receivers running deep crosses leading to a 15 yard sack still haunts me).

Now, this may all be moot. The Eagles probably had the best offensive line in the league, which allowed Jalen Hurts to sneak, run, and throw with plenty of time in the pocket. They could call anything and it would 70% work, as the offensive line would dominate the opposing team’s line. This may not work for the Colts. There will be much to improve on through the draft and free agency.

With the Steichen hire, I am going to take a shot at the Colts’ strategy for the draft and free agency. I believe Anthony Richardson at QB fits Steichen’s offense best now. He is by far the best running QB in this draft class, and has a cannon for an arm. There are some accuracy and progression issues, but he can become a much better Jalen Hurts if he approaches his ceiling. He’s still very raw, so I believe the Colts would be able to trade down a bit for him (to at worst 10th pick), as other teams may want a more traditional QB such as Young/Stroud/Levis.

Shoring up the offensive line is arguably the second biggest priority in the draft, especially at RG and OG depth, and acquiring more picks will help. Raimann at LT had improved throughout the year, so that side of the line isn’t a big concern. If Nelson and Kelly stay healthy and motivated and Braden Smith continues what he has been doing, this offensive line should be back within the top 10 offensive lines in the league. There were many changes and a lot of shuffling going on last season coupled with bad QB play and WRs not getting separation, so hopefully there will be some continuity for the new Colts’ QB.

Trading down and grabbing an extra pick allows the Colts to either draft a fast receiver to keep defenses honest, as there aren’t many good receivers in free agency this offseason. Pittman is a great #2 receiver and very durable on the catch, but he won’t beat the defense deep with his speed. Alec Pierce will be going into his sophomore season and has potential, but can he develop into that WR1? Parris Campbell (if we re-sign him) is the Colts’ fastest receiver, but he has never been asked to run deep routes, even in college. If we acquire a late first round pick, we may have a shot at Quentin Johnston from TCU, absolutely a true X receiver who can get past the secondary with his speed and has a large catch radius. Jordan Addison also has the ability to create separation, but is known to drop a bunch of passes and gets bullied on contested catches. Being contested won’t be an issue if he’s open, and he could be a candidate for Richardson’s deep passes.

Hitting on this draft at RG is a must, and taking a gamble on WR is needed. At QB, I have confidence in Steichen developing a QB prospect, as he has done it with Herbert and Hurts. Looking more and more at Anthony Richardson’s game film, I’m more confident the Colts will favor him in the draft over the other QBs, even if he isn’t necessarily more polished. They will definitely do their due diligence, and if the Colts draft Levis or Stroud instead, I’m confident Steichen will maximize their potential and create a game plan that fits their strengths.