Win or Go Home

It is do or die time. The winner of Colts vs. Texans gets to advance to the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs while the loser gets to potentially play the New York Football Giants next season, which means the stakes are really high. This game features two Coach of the Year candidates, and there is a really good chance the coach of the winning team will be awarded Coach of the Year. With Joe Buck and Troy Aikman as commentary crew, there is absolutely no doubt this game will be as exciting in the booth as on the field. This should be a very close game on paper, and hopefully we have the ghost of TY Hilton to guide us to victory through the air instead of leaving the game up for the officiating crew to decide the winner (more on that later).

Trying something new, I will award a point for any pro-Colts factors and deduct a point for any pro-Texans factors.

Offensive Playcalling: The Texans’ OC Bobby Slowik is a young playcaller, but he has done well with Stroud this season, creating a dynamic offense that is 4th in the NFL in passing yards. Coming from the Shanahan coaching tree doesn’t hurt. On the Colts’ side, Shane Steichen has made the most of what he was handed, having to deal with JT’s early season contract dispute/injury and creating entirely new gameplans for Gardner Minshew. I will give this an even ( – ) rating.

Defense/Defensive Playcalling: Both defensive playcallers are similar in that they both rely on the front 4 to generate QB pressure. However, one of these teams is 2nd in allowed yards per carry and the Colts are allowing 4.2 yards per carry. Both the Texans and Colts have a swiss cheese passing defense so that is an even rating. Grover Stewart being out several weeks definitely hampered the line, but opposing RBs aren’t exactly terrified of our line. Will Anderson for the Texans’ is injured but should be able to play, and how much the injury affects him is something to watch. Kenny Moore will be back for this game, and I hope they dial up a blitz with him to switch things up. Giving the nod to the Texans here for their slightly worse pass defense but much better run defense (-1).

Quarterback: Stroud vs. Minshew. Not much explanation needed really. A rookie of the year candidate vs. a fine but inconsistent backup quarterback who can make splash plays from time to time but is turnover-prone. (-1)

Running Back: Jonathan Taylor/Zach Moss/Sermon vs. Singletary/Pierce. Jonathan Taylor is still one of the best RBs in the league when healthy, but he’s facing a tough Texans front allowing only 3.3 yards/carry. Singletary is average but is facing a Colts’ defense that has been porous vs. the rush. (+1).

Pass Catchers: Pittman/Downs/Pierce/Granson is a better group compared to Nico Collins/injured Noah Brown/injured Robert Woods/Dalton Schultz. If Texans’ had a healthy Tank Dell, this is a different story. (+1).

Offensive Line: Both Texans (Tunsil & Mason) and Colts (Kelly & Nelson) have key injured players who didn’t practice yesterday. Their status will be depending on their availability for Thursday’s practice. With Braden Smith back and Raimann having an outstanding year, the Colts’ offensive line is much better than the Texans’, who’ve been plagued with injuries throughout the line all season. The Colts’ line has allowed ample time for Minshew to stay in the pocket and make plays, and last week they finally started and finished the game in one piece for the first time in a long time (+1).

Defensive Line: Both teams’ defensive lines are key to stopping the rush and generating pressure on the QB, and with Grover Stewart back, Colts have one of the best 1-2 punch in the league at inside tackle on paper. Realistically, they haven’t played up to expectation and allowed a lot more rushing yards. The Texans have been great at stopping the run (3rd in rush defense), with ouststanding seasons from Will Anderson and Jonathan Greenard. They’ve had their fair share of injuries, however, including their inside DTs in Collins and Rankins, so we’ll have to see how it plays out. Edge goes Colts as health plays an important role in this matchup (+1).

Secondary: The Colts’ secondary vs. Raiders was JuJu Brents/Jaylon Jones/Lammons at CB with Nick Cross and Ronnie Harrison Jr. up top. That is a YOUNG group of defensive backs. Luckily, we will get Kenny Moore back, but Texans have the edge here. Even with Stingley on IR, Jimmie Ward has been a good slot corner, and Pitre and Kareem Jackson have been alright. (-1).

Referees/Officiating: Officiating has been pretty controversial across the board, but Bill Vinovich’s crew will be officiating Colts-Texans. I believe this will be the X-Factor of the game, and unfortunately for the Colts, luck isn’t on our side. According to Football Reference, the home winning percentage in games he officiated was 40% this season, with the league average at 56%. This may mean nothing but seems less than ideal. I’ll be on the lookout for some ticky tack holding calls that kills drives for the Colts or defensive pass interference calls that go the Texans’ way. This plays into Stroud’s advantage as they will push the ball a lot more through the air, and a large gain through a DPI will be momentum-shifting (-1).

Overall, the score comes out even (-), and the game may play out as such. Either way, we have overachieved in a season we thought was lost when Anthony Richardson went down for the year, and here’s to hoping our season doesn’t end this weekend.

My (Homer) Predictions:

• Colts 27 Texans 23
• Gardner Minshew: 273 yards, 2 TDs
• C.J. Stroud: 290 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT
• Jonathan Taylor: 92 yards, 1 TD
• Devin Singletary: 70 yards
• Pittman 95 yds/Downs 70 yds/Pierce 55 yds

My (Realistic) Predictions:

• Colts 20 Texans 27
• Gardner Minshew: 233 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
• C.J. Stroud: 290 yards, 2 TDs
• Jonathan Taylor: 72 yards, 1 TD
• Devin Singletary: 60 yards, 1 TD
• Pittman 75 yds/Downs 50 yds/Pierce 40 yds