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Archive for May, 2020

Two-Headed Monster – Colts 2020 Draft Analysis

It’s been a while, but I haven’t been excited for a season of football for a long time. Maybe it’s the lack of any kind of sports due to COVID-19 (I even watched Day 3 of the NFL Draft), but it’s more likely the recent additions from the Indianapolis Colts, especially Jonathan Taylor from Wisconsin.

2020 NFL Draft

» 2nd round, 2nd pick (34th overall; from Redskins):

Michael Pittman Jr., wide receiver, Southern California

» 2nd round, 9th pick (41st overall; from Browns):

Jonathan Taylor, running back, Wisconsin

» 3rd round, 21st pick (85th overall; from Lions via Eagles):

Julian Blackmon, safety, Utah

» 4th round, 16th pick (122nd overall):

Jacob Eason, quarterback, Washington

» 5th round, 3rd pick (149th overall; from Lions):

Danny Pinter, offensive lineman, Ball State

» 6th round, 14th pick (193rd overall):

Rob Windsor, defensive tackle, Penn State

» 6th round, 32nd pick (211th overall, from Jets via Chiefs):

Isaiah Rodgers, cornerback, UMass

» 6th round, 33rd pick (212th overall, from Patriots):

Dezmon Patmon, wide receiver, Washington State

» 6th round, 34th pick (213th overall, from Patriots):

Jordan Glasgow, linebacker, Michigan

 

I’ll be honest; I don’t watch a lot of college football, so I’ve only heard about players from friends and through reading articles on the internet, but as the draft approached, I began to watch film on a lot of potential Colts’ targets. I was a huge fan of players like Denzel Mims and Jordan Love, but Michael Pittman Jr. was also on the list.

We already had a great start to the draft with DeForest Buckner coming from the NFC Champions San Francisco 49ers. He will definitely wreak havoc on opposing offensive lines. He’s arguably the second best interior lineman in the NFL, only behind Aaron Donald.

There was also a slim chance we would come out of this draft without a wide receiver with this 2020 class so deep at the position. The only question was who we would take. We haven’t drafted a wide receiver with similar traits to Pittman Jr. in a long time, but most Colts fans are excited about him lining opposite our star WR T.Y. Hilton. Scouts have compared him to Vincent Jackson, and if Pittman Jr.’s productivity comes close to Jackson, then we found a star. Our new QB Phillip Rivers needs a big target to throw to (ala Mike Williams) in the red zone and we found one. Here’s to him having a long and healthy career.

We took a gamble with Julian Blackmon in the 3rd round. He had injury concerns, which was why he dropped into the 3rd round, but the kid is a playmaker. You can line him up as a safety, a cornerback, or even a sub LB on Dime packages. With Geathers probably no longer with the team, he will be a great backup everywhere on the field. Our 4th round pick Jacob Eason was not too surprising. We wanted a QB to develop and learn from Rivers, but guys like Justin Herbert and Jordan Love were shooting up the draft boards, so I’m glad they decided to wait. Eason has a big arm and can show accuracy with pinpointing the ball, but he is inconsistent. Let’s hope he can sit and learn behind one of the most underrated QBs of our time for a year or two and then eventually take the reigns. The rest of the picks aside from the second second round-pick were good picks that improved on our depth. It would be great to never see them play, as that would mean our offensive and defensive line stay healthy.

The surprise came with our second pick of the draft. In typical Chris Ballard fashion, we traded the pick. Except we traded up this time. There were rumors that the Jacksonville Jaguars coveted Jonathan Taylor, and with Leonard Fournette with one foot out the door, they were looking at the RB position. We traded up to the Cleveland Browns and snagged him. To be honest, an RB was not on my radar at all, as we’ve had decent production from our RB corp with Marlon Mack, Nyheim Hines, Jordan Wilkins (2nd in YPC last season). and Jonathan Williams (who is now a free agent but had a productive few games; even helped me out in fantasy leagues). However, now I see the logic behind it.

In drafting Jonathan Taylor, we now have a two-headed monster at the position. We were top 10 in our offensive line rankings across the board last season, and we aim to be even better this season. With a league so focused on stopping the pass, it’s a great time to have two RBs on the same team have 1k yards in a season. We can look at last years’ Super Bowl winners, the Kansas City Chiefs. They have arguably the best QB in the NFL in Patrick Mahomes, but when it came down to it, they went with their rushing plays, with Damien Williams going over 100 yards. The Colts in the regular season with Jacoby Brissett dominated the Kansas City Chiefs by running over 40 times. Passing is great, but when you have talent at the RB position, you must utilize it.

Marlon Mack and Jonathan Taylor really complement each other. While there have been some questions with Mack being a workhorse, Jonathan Taylor’s resume speaks for itself. He is the fastest to 6,000 yards ever and is the 4th all time NCAA rusher. Imagine him with Jacoby Brissett. Now imagine him with Phillip Rivers and a threat to throw. No more stacked boxes, and more available cutback lanes.

Marlon Mack loves to cut the ball outside and Jonathan Taylor (JT) loves kicking it back inside. They’ll keep each other fresh and ready to attack. And speaking of attacking and getting more yards after contact, Taylor loves contact. Just check out the stats:

Jonathan Taylor Yards After Contact (YAC)
2017: 1,355 (1st)
2018: 1,309 (2nd)
2019: 1,257 (2nd)

There have been concerns that Taylor isn’t great in the passing game and doesn’t take care of the ball. To quiet all the fumble concerns, you have to account for JT’s usage in Wisconsin. He ran the ball a LOT, and most into stacked boxes:

2017: 299 rushing attempts, 8 fumbles (2.7% rate)
2018: 307 rushing attempts, 4 fumbles (1.3% rate)
2019: 320 rushing attempts, 6 fumbles (1.9% rate)

Most of these fumbles occurred in his freshman year, so the stats definitely show he has made an effort to take care of the ball. In terms of his pass-catching, he wasn’t relied upon to catch the ball often, but he showed improvement his last season.

Jonathan Taylor is a home run hitter and can take any carry to the house. He reminds me of Adrian Peterson, and I have faith he can be as productive as he is. Coincidentally, he is going to don the #28 as well. JT’s ball carrier vision is amazing even if he doesn’t have the quickest juke or spin moves as a Saquon Barkley or a Christian McCaffrey. In the words of Jason ‘Jet’ Terry, he will “penetrate (past) the bigs, get deep (to the second and third level), suck the D in”, and additionally create contact while falling forward and gaining additional yards. He is a great fit for our team that values hardwork and determination, and  I just can’t wait to see him on the field for the Indianapolis Colts this upcoming season.